Is Microsoft Doomed?

By Deane Barker on September 4, 2007

7 Reasons Why Microsoft is DOOMED!: I don’t normally post things like this, but I read it, and somehow I can’t argue with the guy’s logic.

Name one area where Microsoft is really innovating anymore. The Zune was a bust; the XBox is getting beaten by the Wii on price, and the PS2 on graphics; Vista is not taking off nearly as fast as they hoped; Office is being challenged like never before, etc.

Microsoft really isn’t the clear leader in anything but their diminishing market share in desktop OS and productivity software. Yes, this is still substantial, but this isn’t going to last forever.

All this has taken a toll on their stock price:

Their stock isn’t rising any more. – This is not to say “this week”, but rather over the last seven years. This chart shows a clear picture. You see the stock value climbing steadily until right at the year 2000 – then it fell gradually and has puttered along at a level rate ever since.

Look at the chart — Microsoft’s stock price has indeed been stagnant for five or six years, starting around the period where Google broke out and the iPod showed up.

I would ask, “When do we see layoffs at Microsoft?” but the fact remains that they’re still sitting on $29 billion in cash. That’s a lot. Or is it?

I’m not going to sit here and say that Microsoft is doomed. But they do look like they’re rapidly getting shouldering in on from all sides. Microsoft needs a big hit — an iPod-like hit. I don’t see anything like this on the horizon.



  1. What I find most remarkable about this post is that it ties so well into the argument against antitrust law. Unless one believes that it was the Consent Decree that has caused Microsoft’s reduction in dominance, one cannot but see that, with everything you’ve said in this post, no company can create a real monopoly. There will always be competition. This happened with Microsoft, IBM, and Intel, to name a few.

    Now, of course, there’s talk that the Justice Department might pursue antitrust measures against Intel. History repeats itself.

  2. There is this one thing called Microsoft Surface, I know it’s not going to be common as iPod and all, but it did hit everyone with WOW !

    Otherwise I agree.. MS is becoming more and more of a stale company !

  3. Adobe is rumored to work on an Office “killer”. They sure know how to do it. Just see how the beat the standard application for layout that was QuarkXpress. On the other end, Google is catching up whila Apple wisely chose to focus on entertainment electronics while keeping their professional market alive, but more as a side product. Microsoft looks like a dinosaur in its final days, strugling to catch up but failing. It’s too old, not flexible enough, not creative and daring enough for today’s market and what’s worse: they lost their seriousness and credibility. People laugh at Steve Ballmers performances ad yawn at Bill Gates. The Surface thing looks nice, but I doubt there is a big market for this. Oterwise it would have been conceived by Apple ;)

  4. I think Microsoft is doing better and better in the mobile market, a quite huge one. Since Symbian was born as a technological clun but ended dieing in many different vernaculars not taliking each other, Microsoft took its chance to catch it up opening its Mobile Windows even more than Symbian. The result is that many mobile manufacturers are using their platforms, and despite Linux is getting an option so far Microsoft has a bigger market share (still small, I know, but in perspective..).

    About the ASP google thing, well, they’re just running behind..

  5. What you are all forgetting is that whether people like Vista or not, they will be getting it on their Desktops and paying for it. I am a developer myself, but don’t think Linux will be ready for corporate adoption for a couple more years. The large chunk of business applications are all made on Windows, and that will continue for th lifetime of Vista at least. While MS might fade in the memory of home and small-office consumers, it will dominate the corporate environment for at least another cycle.

    As far as Google is concerned – they still need their users to have a PC with an OS. Same with Adobe’s proposed office suite. Unless Apple is able to produce and sell at the scale of the Wintel duo, those two companies are safe.

  6. Microsoft’s IIS is getting blasted out of the water as far as market sharing is concerned by rival Apache.

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